If you bought $100,000.00 OTC (Over-The-Counter) at spot (price at time of purchase) for some of the top performing cryptocurrencies of 2019 on 01/01/2019, how much profit would you make, if you market sold on 31/12/2019 .

First, lets identify our candidates;

Coincodex is a great source for date range based performance of popular cryptocurrencies. The first requirement was YTD (Year-To-Date) positive performance for 2019. The next bias is based on what I consider to be popular cryptocurrencies, this is not a full exhaustive list, but I consider these top performers based on market sentiment and community engagement;

Using coinmarketcap we take the historic open price for 01/01/2019 and we take the current price at time of writing for 31/12/2019

We calculate how many tokens we purchased for $100,000.00 OTC at spot on 01/01/2019 and what it would be worth of 31/12/2019.

Now here a disclaimer is required, you won’t practically market sell $100,00.00 worth of tokens, especially not on a single exchange, and even more so on a single pair. So this is honestly a worst case example of what you could do. But for purposes of this experiment, we want to calculate the impact of a market sell on the highest liquidity USD pair available.

To get this data we again would use coinmarketcap

For SEELE, we can see this is Huobi Global SEELE/USDT, so we capture the orderbook at time of writing;

For SEELE, we have 27,601,435.27 SEELE. The full buy side orderbook (as shown by the exchange) is 10,261,612.00 SEELE. Now again, a disclaimer here is required, this does not account for active buying/selling, nor does it account for hidden orders, or market making. This assumes a single market sell into the current active orderbook.

So for SEELE, we can sell 10,261,612.00, at an average price of $0.1203, for a total amount sold worth $1,234,276.64. We managed to sell 37.18% of our SEELE, but we also pushed the price down by -99.99%

So applying this same mechanic to all of the above listed coins, we find the following results (order book snapshots provided below)

Results

Looking at the above results, we were unable to sell 100% of our original investment for

  • SEELE (could sell 37.18%)
  • SNX (could sell 0.86%)
  • DAG (could sell 1.61%)
  • DX (could sell 11.98%)
  • RLC (could sell 39.13%)
  • LOKI (could sell 43.03%)
  • QNT (could sell 28.84%)
  • CRO (could sell 4.41%)
  • REN (could sell 72.44%)

So profits (USD value sold minus our original investment of $100,000.00) ends up being negative for all but;

  • SEELE (1,134% profits)
  • XTZ (166% profits)
  • HT (155% profits)
  • BNB (121% profits)
  • BTC (93% profits)
  • THETA (13% profits)
  • TOMO (23% profits)
  • KCS (20% profits)
  • HOT (5% profits)
  • BAT (35% profits)
  • VET (32% profits)

Which would mean, that the only coins that managed to outperform BTC based on liquidity and order book depth, would be;

  • SEELE
  • XTZ
  • HT (exchange token)
  • BNB (exchange token)

The following markets would have been reduced to 0;

  • SEELE (with $1,234,276.64)
  • SNX (with $9,759.30)
  • DAG (with $6,563.92)
  • DX (with $42,589.22)
  • RLC (with $43,272.10)
  • LOKI (with $36,874.83)
  • QNT (with $32,268.91)
  • CRO (with $6,030.44)
  • REN (with $59,651.66)

Conclusion: If we consider in market health, the only viable tokens that outperformed BTC would be;

  • XTZ (down -10%)
  • HT (down -2%)
  • BNB (down -2%)

With only BTC being completely unaffected by the $100,000.00 sold.

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Order Book Snapshots

SEELE/USD

SNX/USD

THETA/USD

TOMO/USD

VET/USD

XTZ/USD

RLC/USD

REP/USD

REN/USD

QNT/ETH

LOKI/ETH

KCS/USD

HT/USD

HOT/USD

FTM/USD

DX/ETH

DAG/USD

CRO/USD

BTC/USD

BNB/USD

BAT/USD